TSLA — expert X mentions

This is how the Mag 7's typically perform from July to December during mid-term years. 1. $AAPL (+13.8%) is the best performer. Most cash, which does well during uncertain times. iPhone catalyst release as well. 2. $NVDA (+12.3%) likes to make up a lot of its gains second half of the year. Typically choppy during the first half. 3. $MSFT (+9.0%) steady grinder, reliable, boring, and quietly one of the best H2 performers 4. $AMZN (+2.8%) the second half brings holiday spending which LIFTS the retail side but AWS capex concerns still linger which causes AMZN to be flat 5. $GOOGL (+1.8%) barely positive second half, SMB ad budgets start to recover post-midterm but it's slow 6. $META (-6.6%) despite strong digital ad trends, META tends to GIVE BACK gains in H2 just through seasonality 7. $TSLA (-11.0%) typically the worst of the group. Big-ticket consumer discretionary suffers as midterm anxiety lingers

Tesla $TSLA is down ~22% since Michael Burry opened his short. https://t.co/PuUWZbomj5

特斯拉最大问题是未证明无人出租车的价值。饼虽大、PPT漂亮、话好听，但最终须体现在财报上。目前市场已明显失去耐心。 说句良心话，市场对特斯拉已很宽容了。特斯拉拥有全宇宙最善良的股东。换任何公司，以无人出租车这种发展速度，估计早已跌到100块。 进度确实偏慢。马斯克坚持摄像头方案的理由之一是可快速扩张，跑通一地即可迅速全球铺开。目前看他食言了，仍是一城一城测试，同城面积也一点一点扩大，感觉和雷达方案没区别，甚至比Waymo更慢😅 更重要的是，盈利模式和市场认可度完全空白，能否成为新现金流机器、市场是否认可，一切未知，都需时间。 我对特斯拉的建议是：等它证明自己再买入，宁愿少赚一点。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

$TSLA Straight to prior support levels at $335 that was set back in April. Wild. Let’s see if we can make a double bottom here and then start grinding higher again. If not, we’ll be talking about downside targets. https://t.co/83DEtmT6WH

Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Alphabet $GOOGL delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage. 2. AMD $AMD and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia. 3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran. 4. Tesla $TSLA reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026. 5. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $TSLA with 844K contracts, $AMZN with 828K contracts, $MU with 803K contracts, $SMCI with 746K contracts, $SPCX with 745K contracts, $MSFT with 722K contracts, $INTC with 548K contracts, and $PLTR with 540K contracts. 7. Google $GOOGL raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure. 8. ServiceNow $NOW delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123. 9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $PYPL. 10. Apple $AAPL is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability. 11. Baird reiterated Nebius $NBIS at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market. 12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$TSLA continues to slide down after earnings today. Called it. Tesla is not a good buy right now. 1. Robotaxi is slow to expand, low profit margin 2. Ev - high competition, margin declining 3. Optimus market fit is far away. https://t.co/f3J1J8nRCV

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Rocket Lab $RKLB won a $266M U.S. Air Force contract, extending its momentum in defense. The launches are expected to take place in Alaska and be completed by the end of 2028. The award adds to Rocket Lab’s growing streak of defense contract wins as the company continues expanding its role in national security space missions. 2. BofA is staying bullish on the memory trade, arguing that Chinese open-source AI models strengthen the long-term demand case for $MU, $SKHY, $SNDK, $STX, and $WDC. The firm reiterated its Buy rating on Micron $MU with a $1,550 price target, saying cheaper Chinese model pricing does not mean lower hardware intensity. BofA notes Kimi K3 API pricing is reportedly 5x–350x below Western models, but says that reflects business-model choices rather than the true cost of compute infrastructure. The firm also highlights that Kimi K3 needs roughly 1.4TB of HBM per serving instance, while larger AI models should require the same or even more memory as weights and active parameters grow. BofA also sees CXMT focused on commodity DRAM rather than advanced HBM, and notes Micron’s CHIPS Act restrictions may expire around December 2026, potentially opening the door for $50B–$60B in annual buybacks. 3. Moonshot AI is reportedly targeting a valuation of up to $50B in a final pre-IPO funding round after launching Kimi K3. The company is expected to close its current round at a $31.5B valuation before starting another round of fundraising talks in August, ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO that could come as soon as this year. 4. Tesla $TSLA detailed its 2026 Summer software update, with rollout expected soon. The biggest change is deeper Grok integration, letting drivers use voice commands to place calls, control music, change climate settings, and open the glovebox. Tesla is also bringing self-driving stats into the mobile app, making them viewable and shareable, while navigation will get smarter by surfacing routine destinations and favoring routes the driver has taken before. The update also adds the ability to set a preferred arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear-screen controls from the front display. 5. Nvidia $NVDA says it could eventually produce up to 1,000 Vera Rubin racks per day. If reached, that scale would imply more than $630B in quarterly revenue for Nvidia and its manufacturing partners, based on estimates cited in the post. Nvidia’s hardware engineering SVP Andrew Bell said the company’s manufacturing partners should be able to make up to 1,000 racks per day once production ramps, highlighting the massive revenue potential tied to Vera Rubin if AI data center demand continues scaling. 6. Sam Altman is expected to brief the Trump administration and members of Congress next week on OpenAI’s next family of models, including their capabilities and potential impact on jobs. A new release may be getting closer, though OpenAI has not officially named the models GPT-6 or announced a launch date. 7. Jefferies came away impressed after testing Meta’s $META AI glasses, highlighting the camera quality, seamless setup, and normal-glasses form factor. The firm says Meta has a first-mover advantage as the only player currently shipping AI glasses at scale. Jefferies estimates the category could become a $14B–$18B hardware revenue opportunity within the next few years, assuming Apple Watch-like adoption at an average selling price of $400, or roughly 35M–45M units. The firm also sees upside from AI subscriptions, advertising, and commerce over time. Jefferies noted Meta AI now has around 1B monthly active users, daily glasses users are tripling YoY, and more than 7M units were sold in 2025. Jefferies says the bigger opportunity is commerce, as AI glasses could capture user intent at the point of discovery if agentic AI shifts behavior from browsing to delegation. units in 2026. 8. Supermicro $SMCI gave a major preliminary update after hours. Fiscal Q4 revenue is expected to land near the low end of its $11B–$12.5B guidance range, but the bigger surprise is gross margin, now expected at 15%–17% versus the prior 8.2%–8.4% forecast. Last quarter, SMCI was guiding gross margins around 8.4%–8.7%, and its TTM gross margin is only 8.83%, making this a dramatic improvement in just 90 days. The company also said it received more than $60B in new orders during the quarter, pushing backlog to a record high, though some orders could still be delayed or canceled. Full results are due August 11 9. Google $GOOGL is rolling out Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, and a new limited-access cybersecurity-focused model. Gemini 3.6 Flash is designed to be more efficient, using up to 17% fewer tokens while also lowering cost per token. Flash-Lite is aimed at faster, high-volume use cases where speed and scale matter most. Google is also introducing Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, a model built to find and help fix software vulnerabilities, though access will initially be restricted to governments and trusted partners. 10. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 977K contracts, $TSLA with 887K contracts, $SPCX with 752K contracts, $INTC with 656K contracts, $AMZN with 511K contracts, $NFLX with 509K contracts, $AMD with 410K contracts, and $MSFT with 387K contracts. 11. CoreWeave $CRWV says near-term profitability is being weighed down by a timing mismatch in its AI infrastructure rollout. New capacity starts depreciating roughly six weeks before contracted customer revenue begins coming in, creating pressure on reported earnings. The company is carrying about $30B of debt to fund 49 operating data centers and future deployments, with depreciation and interest equal to 81% of Q1 revenue. CEO Michael Intrator expects that drag to lessen as more installed capacity converts into revenue. CoreWeave’s financing is supported by long-term customer contracts, where clients must pay for reserved capacity whether they use it or not. 12. Short interest across U.S. equities is climbing to extreme levels. In the S&P 500, short interest has risen to roughly 3.7% of free float, near the highest level in data going back to 2010. For the Russell 3000, short interest is around 6.1%, also close to an all-time high, with both measures steadily moving higher since the start of 2025. Across all NYSE-listed stocks, short interest reached a record 9.0% of shares outstanding in late June. For context, that same metric peaked near 5.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis and around 6.0% during the 2020 pandemic. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.