NVDA — expert X mentions

Cramer continues to curse $NVDA https://t.co/lvzUMhk6FR

This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year. Market seems to be reacting to a few things: - A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand - NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular - NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing - China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously. Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today. As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today. Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern? $MU $SNDK $INTC $NVDA $AMD

The service industry is 100 times larger than the software industry." - Jensen Huang Agentic AI is allowing software to capture this massive TAM, driving a 1,000% increase in required compute power. So who actually captures this value at the application layer? My latest Substack takes a look at ServiceNow’s recent earnings, revealing exactly how management is building the required control tower for enterprise AI. Trying to make some more frequent updates on businesses I am following. Check the link out below 👇 $NVDA $NOW

Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing. - Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus - OpenAI signs long term lease - $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing - OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips. Not quite sure if this circular financing is healthy long term, but given the massive size of AI infrastructure spending… Feels like capex beneficiaries will be extremely happy.

The numbers sound like a lot, but OpenAI's ARR is likely in the several tens of billions right now, going to hundreds of billions in the coming years. Under that backdrop, $250 billion or $500 billion over 5 to 10 years is less risky if you think about it as $25 billion to $50 billion a year. Also, if you're competing in business against Jensen, good luck. Game of Kings. WSJ: "Nvidia is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data center project, one of the most ambitious financial transactions yet in America’s artificial-intelligence boom." "The guarantees from Nvidia would help the ChatGPT maker lease a 10-gigawatt project that SoftBank’s energy subsidiary is developing in southern Ohio, people familiar with the matter said. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, including the chips that would go inside the data centers. It would be the largest data center project announced to date." "The $250 billion guarantee would cover the data center lease and debt needed to fund its build out, but not the Nvidia chips that would go inside it. Nvidia, which has invested $30 billion in OpenAI, is also discussing a deal to finance the chip purchase for OpenAI, which could total $350 billion, people familiar with those discussions said." "The campus would require roughly 10 gigawatts of electricity"

BREAKING: Nvidia $NVDA is in talks to provide up to $250B in financing for an OpenAI datacenter in Ohio, as per the Wall Street Journal. - The project could exceed $500 billion in total cost, making it the largest announced AI data center project to date. The first phase is expected to come online in 2028 with roughly 800 megawatts of capacity. - The U.S. government is playing a central role, with power supplied through a federally backed project funded by Japan under a recent trade agreement. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is involved in allocating the power. - Nvidia is also discussing financing OpenAI's chip purchases, which could total up to $350 billion, highlighting the increasingly intertwined financing structures supporting large-scale AI infrastructure. - The Ohio campus would give OpenAI its first dedicated data center lease, reducing reliance on cloud providers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle as the company ramps projected AI infrastructure spending to roughly $750 billion through 2030.

Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.

Many more signatories have joined the NVIDIA–Microsoft letter on open-weight AI models, including AMD. It shows a united front to Washington, D.C. in support of open-weight AI models. Politicians and regulators should listen to industry. Only Anthropic and Amazon haven’t signed https://t.co/eEZf0ZtWbh

Jensen Huang tells Bloomberg that Nvidia is constrained by shortages of HBM and LPDDR memory, land, power, and construction workers. Basically, the chip maker is supply constrained versus demand. "I think we have the ability as an industry to double each year, but we're going to have a hard time growing much faster than that" IS DOUBLING REVENUE EACH YEAR IN YOUR MODELS?

Jensen estimates that the computing industry will become 10x bigger in the next decade. "Computers are built not just for people to use, but computers are being built for computers to use. My guess is that the semiconductor industry is probably going to have to be 10 times larger than it is today over the next decade or so." $NVDA

Memory stocks are well off their highs while the actual demand keeps setting records. $NVDA just signed a $500 billion+ partnership with SK Group, including a long term deal to lock in and co develop next gen HBM. And Korea says Samsung and SK Hynix agreed to roughly $950 billion in supply deals with US tech firms, including a five-year $750 billion SK Hynix agreement covering Nvidia. The most important company in AI just tied up memory supply for years. You only do that when you’re worried you can’t get it. Supply is getting locked away, not loosened.

OpenAI tells me they signed the Nvidia–Microsoft open-source/open-weights AI model letter today. What an amazing turn of events. Your move, Anthropic! https://t.co/425JIQp8JH

Jensen from $NVDA has joined X for the first time to share his letter on open models.

This is how the Mag 7's typically perform from July to December during mid-term years. 1. $AAPL (+13.8%) is the best performer. Most cash, which does well during uncertain times. iPhone catalyst release as well. 2. $NVDA (+12.3%) likes to make up a lot of its gains second half of the year. Typically choppy during the first half. 3. $MSFT (+9.0%) steady grinder, reliable, boring, and quietly one of the best H2 performers 4. $AMZN (+2.8%) the second half brings holiday spending which LIFTS the retail side but AWS capex concerns still linger which causes AMZN to be flat 5. $GOOGL (+1.8%) barely positive second half, SMB ad budgets start to recover post-midterm but it's slow 6. $META (-6.6%) despite strong digital ad trends, META tends to GIVE BACK gains in H2 just through seasonality 7. $TSLA (-11.0%) typically the worst of the group. Big-ticket consumer discretionary suffers as midterm anxiety lingers

Wow. Nvidia is seriously concerned Washington D.C. is going to overregulate and restrict open source/open weight models. "Today, NVIDIA released a letter with ecosystem partners, including Microsoft, Palantir, ServiceNow, Box and others, underscoring how critical open-source models are to U.S. competitiveness and U.S. leadership on AI." "Policymakers have an important opportunity to act .. keeping the frontier plural by avoiding premature restrictions on open models that stifle competition or drive innovation overseas."

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $GOOGL was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping either. Crude oil has pushed back above $90/barrel for the first time since June and is up 25% over the past month. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%, while jobless claims came in at 187K vs 211K expected, showing a stronger labor market but also raising concerns that inflation pressure could persist. Today was the worst day for the Mag 7 since April 2025 with all 7 stocks erasing $800B of market cap. 2. AMD $AMD CEO Lisa Su said at the AMD Advancing AI event today that the AI accelerator market could grow to $1.4T by 2030, within a broader compute market expected to reach $2T. She also noted that monthly AI token consumption has surged 158x over the past two years, underscoring how quickly compute demand is scaling. AMD unveiled Helios, its new rack-scale AI system built around the MI450 accelerator, which Su called the fastest AI accelerator in the industry. Helios is now in full production, with shipments expected to start at the end of Q3 and ramp through Q4. 3. Intel $INTC posted a strong Q2, with revenue of $16.1B vs $14.5B expected, up 25% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.22 expected. Adjusted gross margin came in at 41.8% vs 39% expected, up 1,210 bps YoY, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 17.2% vs 10.7% expected. Segment results were strong across the core business, with CCPG revenue up 13% YoY to $8.9B, DCAI revenue up 59% YoY to $6.3B, total Intel Products revenue up 28% YoY to $15.1B, and Intel Foundry revenue up 31% YoY to $5.8B. Management said Q2 marked Intel’s strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years, driven by better execution, higher factory yields, improved cycle times, and stronger customer demand. 4. Trump warned that the U.S. will hold Iran responsible if the Houthis resume attacks on commercial shipping. He said the Houthis had acted “responsibly” after previous U.S. strikes, but are now “starting up again” after reportedly firing on two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Trump said the Houthis are a proxy of Iran, and that any further attacks would trigger major military punishment against both Iran and the Houthis. 5. Nvidia $NVDA is committing $1.5B to Amkor $AMKR through a prepayment tied to a multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement. The funding will help Amkor expand U.S. packaging capacity at its Arizona campus as both companies work on next-generation packaging and test technologies for AI and accelerated computing. The partnership will focus on high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration, which are key for combining multiple chips and components into more powerful systems. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.6M contracts, $NVDA with 2.4M contracts, $GOOGL with 994K contracts, $AMZN with 940K contracts, $SPCX with 917K contracts, $AAPL with 732K contracts, $INTC with 706K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $GOOG with 560K contracts, and $MSFT with 532K contracts. 7. South Korea is moving to tighten rules around leveraged single-stock ETFs and ETNs beginning July 31. Retail investors will now need about $20,300 in cash to open or add to a position, up from roughly $6,800 previously. The key change is that stocks, bonds, and other securities will no longer count toward the deposit requirement, making it harder for retail traders to access these leveraged products. 8. U.S. mortgage rates rose for the third straight week, with the average 30-year fixed climbing to 6.58%, putting rates back near their highest level in a year. 9. AMD $AMD and Cerebras $CBRS are teaming up on a disaggregated AI inference architecture that divides workloads between both platforms. In the setup, AMD Helios manages prompts and long-context processing, while Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine focuses on ultra-low-latency token generation. The companies say the combined system can deliver up to 5x more tokens per second per watt than Cerebras alone, with initial availability expected through Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026. 10. Uber $UBER cut 10% of roles in its customer service operations as it restructures the division and leans further into AI. The company said fragmented workflows were making it harder to roll out AI at scale, and this marks Uber’s first layoff round specifically tied to AI-driven efficiency. 11. SpaceX $SPCX is reportedly turning away satellite operators looking for dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 as the company shifts more of its long-term launch strategy toward Starship, per Bloomberg. SpaceX has also stopped taking future Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and has paused production of some expendable Falcon components, though Falcon 9 is still expected to remain active for NASA and Pentagon missions. The risk is timing: if Starship is not commercially ready by 2028, the market could face a major launch-capacity gap, creating a bigger opening for competitors like Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and ULA. 12. Meta’s $META new $12B Texas data center financing, tied to a nearly 1GW project, is reportedly being discussed at yields above 7%. That is roughly 40 bps higher than Meta’s $27B Hyperion financing from just nine months ago, adding about $48M in annual interest expense. Hyperion bonds are now trading around 96 cents on the dollar, showing how financing costs for massive AI infrastructure projects are starting to move higher. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Nvidia CEO on whether we are in a bubble: "The bubble will come someday. It's just not today." "Yeah, it's very unlikely in the next five years." "We basically are constrained in every single direction, in every single way. That constraint is good." "That constraint is what holds the system back. So that gives us plenty of time to go build out these infrastructure." $NVDA

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Alphabet $GOOGL delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage. 2. AMD $AMD and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia. 3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran. 4. Tesla $TSLA reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026. 5. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $TSLA with 844K contracts, $AMZN with 828K contracts, $MU with 803K contracts, $SMCI with 746K contracts, $SPCX with 745K contracts, $MSFT with 722K contracts, $INTC with 548K contracts, and $PLTR with 540K contracts. 7. Google $GOOGL raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure. 8. ServiceNow $NOW delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123. 9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $PYPL. 10. Apple $AAPL is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability. 11. Baird reiterated Nebius $NBIS at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market. 12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

GOOGLE RAISES CAPEX FROM $190B TO $205B FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026 2027 CAPEX NOT DISCLOSED BUT WILL BE “SIGNIFICANTLY MORE” Semis loving it after hours but Google is taking the hit as the market digests what “significantly more” means 😂 $NVDA $NBIS $CRWV $IREN $MU

Coincidentally AMD has a product named Verano. Competing with Nvidia's Vera CPU. The pun, Vera No writes itself. It's attached to MI500. It is on 2nm, and generally has more cores, memory. We described it back here in February. https://t.co/Fz6fps7iM8

Reminder: most neoclouds are still down 15-30% in the last month. But don't forget what has happened in that short amount of time. - Meta upsized its Louisiana data center from $10B to over $50B, with the full site cost reportedly topping $250B with chips. Then doubled its compute target to 14GW by 2027. - Kimi K3, the hottest model in the world right now, literally paused new subscriptions because there isn't enough compute to serve customers. Rationing demand. In 2026. - OpenAI raised its infrastructure spending plan today to $750 billion through 2030, up from $600B, and broke ground on its first self-built data center, a $20B project in Georgia with 3.2GW of contracted power. - Reflection AI stacked roughly $7B in compute deals across SpaceX and Nebius in under a month because no single provider could supply them. - Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in Nebius. The company with perfect visibility into every order book on earth bought a tenth of a neocloud. - SK Hynix's CEO said memory is sold out beyond 2030. Micron committed $250B to US fabs. Morgan Stanley raised hyperscaler capex to $1.4 trillion by 2028. Every single data point says the same thing, there is not enough compute, and the biggest players on earth are paying anything to get more of it. And the companies whose entire business is renting out compute are 20-30% off their highs. The disconnect is the opportunity.

WSJ: "Advanced Micro Devices and Anthropic have signed a deal for tens of billions of dollars’ worth of artificial-intelligence servers, strengthening AMD’s competitive position against industry leader Nvidia and supplying Anthropic with much needed computing power. Under the terms of the agreement, Anthropic will purchase up to 2 gigawatts of AMD’s latest-generation chips, called the Instinct MI450, starting in the first half of 2027. AMD will also invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic—its first check into the AI firm—as certain deployment milestones are met."

$NVDA NVIDIA'S JENSEN HUANG GIVES AN UPDATE ON KIMI K3 AND CHINA'S OPEN SOURCE MODELS: "American companies should absolutely be allowed to use Chinese AI models. There's a misconception that somehow there are backdoors connected to China in someway. You download the models, fine tune them, guardrail them in any way you want." "These Chinese opensource models are excellent. The market has misunderstood the impact of DeepSeek the first time. It's misunderstood the impact of Kimi this time. Open models are great for the whole industry, there will be more usage which will require selling more Nvidia computers and building more datacenters." "Great models lead to more usage. There is also a misunderstanding that open models are going to hurt the closed models, that is also wrong."

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Rocket Lab $RKLB won a $266M U.S. Air Force contract, extending its momentum in defense. The launches are expected to take place in Alaska and be completed by the end of 2028. The award adds to Rocket Lab’s growing streak of defense contract wins as the company continues expanding its role in national security space missions. 2. BofA is staying bullish on the memory trade, arguing that Chinese open-source AI models strengthen the long-term demand case for $MU, $SKHY, $SNDK, $STX, and $WDC. The firm reiterated its Buy rating on Micron $MU with a $1,550 price target, saying cheaper Chinese model pricing does not mean lower hardware intensity. BofA notes Kimi K3 API pricing is reportedly 5x–350x below Western models, but says that reflects business-model choices rather than the true cost of compute infrastructure. The firm also highlights that Kimi K3 needs roughly 1.4TB of HBM per serving instance, while larger AI models should require the same or even more memory as weights and active parameters grow. BofA also sees CXMT focused on commodity DRAM rather than advanced HBM, and notes Micron’s CHIPS Act restrictions may expire around December 2026, potentially opening the door for $50B–$60B in annual buybacks. 3. Moonshot AI is reportedly targeting a valuation of up to $50B in a final pre-IPO funding round after launching Kimi K3. The company is expected to close its current round at a $31.5B valuation before starting another round of fundraising talks in August, ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO that could come as soon as this year. 4. Tesla $TSLA detailed its 2026 Summer software update, with rollout expected soon. The biggest change is deeper Grok integration, letting drivers use voice commands to place calls, control music, change climate settings, and open the glovebox. Tesla is also bringing self-driving stats into the mobile app, making them viewable and shareable, while navigation will get smarter by surfacing routine destinations and favoring routes the driver has taken before. The update also adds the ability to set a preferred arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear-screen controls from the front display. 5. Nvidia $NVDA says it could eventually produce up to 1,000 Vera Rubin racks per day. If reached, that scale would imply more than $630B in quarterly revenue for Nvidia and its manufacturing partners, based on estimates cited in the post. Nvidia’s hardware engineering SVP Andrew Bell said the company’s manufacturing partners should be able to make up to 1,000 racks per day once production ramps, highlighting the massive revenue potential tied to Vera Rubin if AI data center demand continues scaling. 6. Sam Altman is expected to brief the Trump administration and members of Congress next week on OpenAI’s next family of models, including their capabilities and potential impact on jobs. A new release may be getting closer, though OpenAI has not officially named the models GPT-6 or announced a launch date. 7. Jefferies came away impressed after testing Meta’s $META AI glasses, highlighting the camera quality, seamless setup, and normal-glasses form factor. The firm says Meta has a first-mover advantage as the only player currently shipping AI glasses at scale. Jefferies estimates the category could become a $14B–$18B hardware revenue opportunity within the next few years, assuming Apple Watch-like adoption at an average selling price of $400, or roughly 35M–45M units. The firm also sees upside from AI subscriptions, advertising, and commerce over time. Jefferies noted Meta AI now has around 1B monthly active users, daily glasses users are tripling YoY, and more than 7M units were sold in 2025. Jefferies says the bigger opportunity is commerce, as AI glasses could capture user intent at the point of discovery if agentic AI shifts behavior from browsing to delegation. units in 2026. 8. Supermicro $SMCI gave a major preliminary update after hours. Fiscal Q4 revenue is expected to land near the low end of its $11B–$12.5B guidance range, but the bigger surprise is gross margin, now expected at 15%–17% versus the prior 8.2%–8.4% forecast. Last quarter, SMCI was guiding gross margins around 8.4%–8.7%, and its TTM gross margin is only 8.83%, making this a dramatic improvement in just 90 days. The company also said it received more than $60B in new orders during the quarter, pushing backlog to a record high, though some orders could still be delayed or canceled. Full results are due August 11 9. Google $GOOGL is rolling out Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, and a new limited-access cybersecurity-focused model. Gemini 3.6 Flash is designed to be more efficient, using up to 17% fewer tokens while also lowering cost per token. Flash-Lite is aimed at faster, high-volume use cases where speed and scale matter most. Google is also introducing Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, a model built to find and help fix software vulnerabilities, though access will initially be restricted to governments and trusted partners. 10. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 977K contracts, $TSLA with 887K contracts, $SPCX with 752K contracts, $INTC with 656K contracts, $AMZN with 511K contracts, $NFLX with 509K contracts, $AMD with 410K contracts, and $MSFT with 387K contracts. 11. CoreWeave $CRWV says near-term profitability is being weighed down by a timing mismatch in its AI infrastructure rollout. New capacity starts depreciating roughly six weeks before contracted customer revenue begins coming in, creating pressure on reported earnings. The company is carrying about $30B of debt to fund 49 operating data centers and future deployments, with depreciation and interest equal to 81% of Q1 revenue. CEO Michael Intrator expects that drag to lessen as more installed capacity converts into revenue. CoreWeave’s financing is supported by long-term customer contracts, where clients must pay for reserved capacity whether they use it or not. 12. Short interest across U.S. equities is climbing to extreme levels. In the S&P 500, short interest has risen to roughly 3.7% of free float, near the highest level in data going back to 2010. For the Russell 3000, short interest is around 6.1%, also close to an all-time high, with both measures steadily moving higher since the start of 2025. Across all NYSE-listed stocks, short interest reached a record 9.0% of shares outstanding in late June. For context, that same metric peaked near 5.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis and around 6.0% during the 2020 pandemic. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

The most important takeaway is, NVIDIA described its CPO switch for scale-out networking as being in “volume manufacturing,” rather than as a development-stage product. With CoreWeave, Lambda, and OCI named as early adopters, CPO appears to be moving beyond technical demonstrations and into real AI data center deployments. As I mentioned in my recent article on AEHR’s earnings, identifying the signals that mark the beginning of Phase 2 in optical investment will be increasingly important. Keep following optical expert @PhotonCap and pay close attention to the signals he highlights.

The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs. If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again. At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI. However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board. Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down. Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months. If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up? These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend. $NVDA $AMD $NBIS $MU $AVGO

We have 10 years of AI left. The latest research from McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, PwC, ARK Invest, and Gartner on where AI is heading. 1. $725 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year alone. That's 77% growth year over year. 88% of companies are already deploying AI. The hyperscalers are building nuclear reactors just to power the data centers. This money flows directly into $NVDA, $AVGO, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, and $META. 2. By 2027, Artificial General Intelligence. AI that can reason across any task, not just narrow ones. Anthropic and Google DeepMind both forecast powerful systems arriving by late 2027. The companies building the picks and shovels for this are companies like $AMD, $MRVL, $TSM, and $ASML. 3. By 2028, Physical AI. Humanoid robots at manufacturing scale. 30,000 units per year. $50 billion invested. Watch TSLA Optimus, Hyundai Atlas, and Figure AI. The sensors, chips, and actuators behind them flow through companies like $ON and $TER. 4. By 2030, AI is projected to add $15.7 trillion to global GDP. $14 trillion AI software market. 170 million new jobs created. ARK estimates AI software companies alone could create $80 trillion in enterprise value. 5. By 2035, full autonomy. $450 billion in agentic software revenue. AI conducts novel scientific research. $3.6 trillion global market. 30% of all enterprise software revenue comes from AI agents. Every major selloff in AI has been a buying opportunity.

If you're under 40, this momentum sell-off is a gift. You need to be investing aggressively for your future. $ZETA - ~$21 now. 19 straight beat-and-raise quarters. Revenue up 50% YoY. $NOK - ~$10 now. NVIDIA invested $1 billion. AI & cloud revenue up 49%. $SOFI - ~$17 now. CEO has bought $2.25 million in shares this year across five transactions. $IREN - ~$42 now. $9.7 billion Microsoft contract. 480MW AI capacity by year end. $NVDA - ~$206 now. $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue. Data center up 92%. $AMZN - ~$250 now. AWS + ads + 200M+ Prime members. $OSS - ~$13 now. Rugged AI edge compute for defense. Revenue up 55%. $15M in Q1 bookings. $ONDS - ~$7 now. Autonomous defense systems. $525M revenue guidance. $150M+ in Q2 bookings. $UUUU - ~$12 now. Uranium + rare earths. $725M government backing. Revenue more than doubled YoY. $TE - ~$6 now. US solar manufacturing with 5GW capacity. Revenue up 232%. Quality names with real catalysts. The people who built wealth didn't buy all-time highs. They bought corrections.