NBIS — expert X mentions

If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.

$NVDA now holds a 9.3% stake in $NBIS per new SEC filings. This is the single most bullish thing you can have as an AI company. The supplier at the center of the entire buildout, with perfect visibility into every order book and roadmap on earth, choosing to own nearly 10% of you. Jensen doesn't guess where compute demand is going. He ships it.

Well thats why we got a pump. "Nvidia Corporation Reports 9.3% Passive Stake in Nebius Group N.V. as of July 13- SEC Filing"

If I had to bet on the future, I'd bet on these 5 sectors. One name each. Interconnect - $CRDO Every generation of AI compute needs more links between chips, and it doesn't matter whose silicon wins. Copper king today, just bought their optical future with DustPhotonics. The wiring gets paid in every scenario. Neoclouds - $NBIS Compute is the scarcest resource on earth right now. Models are literally rationing customers. Nebius has $46B+ in contracts from Meta, Microsoft, and Reflection, growing revenue 684%, and just went asset-light to scale on other people's capital. Memory - $MU Three companies supply the entire world, and the SK Hynix CEO says it's sold out beyond 2030. Customers are prepaying years in advance. Micron is committing $250B to US fabs because they can see the demand curve. Oligopoly plus shortage is the best setup in markets. Semis- $INTC Someone has to physically make the chips on American soil, and there's exactly one US company that can. Every reshoring dollar, every national security mandate, every hyperscaler wanting domestic supply flows through the same place. Compute empires - $META Half of humanity on their apps, an ad machine printing $160B+ a year funding it all, 14GW of compute by 2027, their own chip in production, and an AI cloud business the market prices at zero. The future needs all of them.

"Excess compute" "AI overbuild" "end of AI capex" Yikes yikes yikes. Jokers, liars, don't knowers, manipulators, find your worders. Not enough Nebius holders. Long $NBIS and chill. All of this before end to end agents are online. Can't make it up. Sorry to say, but the Schadenfreude I'll feel when I see the reaction of all the people who felt like they are competent to talk about an AI overbuild after they see what agents will do to demand... immense.

$NBIS (Nebius) currently has a market cap of $45 billion.. stock is down -40% from the all time highs. Looking at sell side estimates... consensus is $45 billion of revenues in CY2030. In my base case model I'm currently at $47.5 billion revenues in CY2030 with my bull case model at $55 billion revenues in CY2030... both models with ~20% EBIT margins in CY2030 (sell side is at ~24%) When I started buying $NBIS last year in the $20s and $30s, my long term thesis wasn't just about being a leading neocloud, it was also about their stakes in Clickhouse, AVride, Toloka and TripleTen. Clickhouse is an open-source database management system. AVride is a leading developer in autonomous cars and robots. Toloka provides data labeling for ai models, similar to what ScaleAI does. TripleTen provides online education/training for tech/ai related jobs. $NBIS owns ~28% of Clickhouse which raised their last round in January 2026 at ~$15 billion valuation. $NBIS owns ~83% of AVride which raised their last round in October 2025 at ~$4 billion valuation. $NBIS owns ~50% of Toloka which raised their last round in May 2025 at ~$500M valuation. $NBIS owns ~100% of TripleTen which is probably worth $250-500M because it's reported they did $54M revenues in 2025, up 87% YoY from 2024. Right now those four stakes are worth at least $8 billion Databricks just raised $3B at a $188 billion valuation, which was approximately 27x their current $6.9B ARR. Clickhouse raised their last round in January 2026, when the company was reportedly doing $250M ARR but growing 200-250% YoY which means they raised at a 60x multiple. Now that we're 6 months past that last round, I don't know their current ARR but I'd be surprised if they're not closing in on $500M ARR with a good shot at $1B ARR next year which makes me think their next round could be at a $30+ billion valuation. We all know the robotaxi wars are coming with Waymo currently in the lead, Tesla behind them and then Uber with their multiple partners in third place. The numbers are still small for all of these companies but that's going to change drastically over the next 3-5 years. It's very hard to know where the AVride valuation goes from here and how many robotaxis they're able to deploy through the Uber partnership (which invested $375M in the last round) however if AVride becomes a leading provider on the Uber platform, it's possible they could have 100,000+ robotaxis deployed by 2030 in which case the company could be valued at 5-10x the last round... depending on revenues, margins, capex, depreciation, etc... worth noting that deploying 100,000+ robotaxis will require alot of dilution (to fund the capex/opex) so the $NBIS stake would get watered down quite significantly. Here's the reason for my post (just my personal thoughts)... it's possible these 4 stakes that $NBIS owns could increase in value by 400-500% over the next 4-5 years which means they'd be worth ~$45B in ~CY2030 which means if you're buying $NBIS today at a ~$45B market cap... there's a chance you're getting the entire neocloud business for free 😁 NFA. DYOR. *We are long $NBIS at @FirstWaveFund

Don’t call it ignorance. It is a very valid question, and one that many intelligent people are currently debating. My view is that three distinct effects are at work: 1. A smaller frontier-lab opportunity Yes, less capital flowing into frontier labs would mean fewer potential contracts from those labs for infrastructure suppliers such as $NBIS. However, Nebius’s major contracts today are with hyperscalers rather than frontier labs. So while one category of potential customers could become smaller and less lucrative, I would view the direct impact as modestly negative. If anything the issue would be if the new customers are less capable of financing big bildouts upfront. In exchange the long-term profitability from smaller customers is very likely much higher. 2. Demand does not disappear. It shifts and potentially expands. The smarter bearish argument is that if less money flows into AI infrastructure overall, suppliers will build less capacity. That could reduce economies of scale and increase input costs for components such as memory. I simply do not think that is what happens. The underlying demand for intelligence does not disappear. It shifts toward more efficient open-source models. Because those models deliver far better economics, they make AI viable across more use cases and for more users. That could ultimately produce more aggregate compute demand and infrastructure spending, not less. 3. We still need frontier labs to thrive There is one major caveat: frontier labs drive much (if not all) of the fundamental innovation. In my personal view, open-source models currently derive a meaningful share of their progress from distillation and the broader diffusion of frontier breakthroughs, rather than producing all of those breakthroughs independently. Without continued frontier progress, open-source progress would likely slow materially as well. That matters because the expansion of AI’s addressable market should ultimately outweigh the efficiency gains that reduce the compute required for any single task. We want better models, falling costs, rapidly expanding adoption, and a large, vibrant ecosystem. TL;DR: I want both frontier labs and open-source models to thrive. I do not want a world in which open source disappears. But I also do not want open-source economics to weaken frontier labs to the point that investment and technological progress stall. The best outcome is intense competition, continued frontier innovation, rapidly falling costs, and vastly greater AI adoption.

Open source AI will deliver 90% of the performance at a fraction of the cost. That dramatically increases the ROI of AI for every human on earth, except the people at the frontier labs. It is bad for frontier labs because they are simultaneously: a) being replaced in every use case where ROI is more important than frontier capabilities b) being forced to cut prices and margins to remain competitive I know I keep repeating this, but it may be the single most important dynamic to understand right now. It will determine which AI stocks you should and should not own over the next few quarters. My recommendation: own companies that are effectively levered plays on open source winning. That is a core part of the current $NBIS bull case, alongside the more obvious thesis that end-to-end AI agents will increase inference demand by 1,000x. It is so simple, yet most investors do not get it, and a large part of the AI conversation will revolve around this topic for many months to come. Get ready to get bored. But it must be done. I also think people drastically underestimate how important it is for open source to capture a significant share of the market. If the frontier labs win, we are all (pardo my french) fucked. I do not think people understand that yet. It would imply a world in which they get to tax everyone for everything involving intelligence. So a global "everything for everyone tax" - hell no!! Their oligopoly would not allow healthy competitive market forces to persist.

$NBIS never ceases to impress with their financial discipline. They financed only $775m debt with gpu collateral and prepaid contracts. On the other hand other companies in the space are diluting $3bil plus + use $800m alone on stock based compensation.

Every new frontier open weight model seems to reinforce the same trend… Bigger models require more compute. Most companies aren’t going to buy tens of millions of dollars of GPUs to run them. They’ll rent AI infrastructure instead. That’s exactly why I’m so bullish on $NBIS. The better AI gets, the more valuable AI compute becomes.

The positive $NBIS news keeps coming: - Nebius raise $775M debt to accelerate growth. Priced very attractively at SOFR + 2.50%. With this, the facility was also "significantly oversubscribed", signalling institutional confidence in the overall quality of Nebius’s assets / counterparties / execution. To the point where they can now use customer contracts to unlock cheaper debt and not dilute shareholders to hell and back. They also touch on that execution piece in their release: "Nebius recently delivered the latest planned capacity tranche to Microsoft, and remains on track to deliver the remaining tranches consistent with the terms of the contracted schedule." Genuinely feels like Nebius have been doing everything in the right way recently. It would be very easy to mess things up and rush things when you've got surging demand and the desperate need to expand quickly. $100B.

$NBIS Good news. Here is why: Non dilutive capital: $NBIS is funding growth without issuing new shares which preserves value for us shareholders. Asset backed financing: Lenders were willing to lend against deployed GPUs and contracted cash flows…. This suggests confidence that these assets and contracts are valuable collateral. Investment grade customer: While the press release doest name the customer in that sentence, the update about Microsoft deliveries strongly reinforces that a major creditworthy customer is driving a significant portion of the cash flows. Oversubscribed offering: Demand from lenders exceeded the amount Nebius wanted to borrow, which often allows a borrower to obtain better terms and indicates strong institutional interest. Attractive pricing: SOFR + 2.5% is a reasonable spread for this type of financing…especially for a fast growing infrastructure company. CapEx covered: The financing plus the contracted customer cash flows covering more than 100% of the required GPU deployment CapEx….is perhaps the biggest takeaway. It supports management’s argument that they can continue expanding without relying heavily on equity issuance. Might get more of these snippets (and more details) in a few weeks at earnings.

JUST IN: $NBIS raises $775M in its first secured debt financing. The facility is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an agreement with an investment-grade customer. It matures on October 31, 2030, and is priced at SOFR + 2.50%. Together with the cash flows generated under the customer agreement, the financing covers more than 100% of the CapEx required to deploy the underlying GPU infrastructure. A very important detail from the PR: “Nebius recently delivered the latest planned capacity tranche to Microsoft and remains on track to deliver the remaining tranches in line with the contracted schedule.” The transaction was significantly oversubscribed. Non-dilutive financing arriving exactly as expected, and on attractive terms. 👌🏻

The frenzy around Kimi K3 highlights how well timed $NBIS' acquisition of Eigen AI was. As open-source models become more capable and are released at an accelerating pace, the ability to optimize them quickly and serve them efficiently becomes a major competitive advantage for any inference platform. Eigen AI brings exactly that. In a recent Kimi K2.6 benchmark, Eigen led the field with 265 output tokens per second vs. 224 for the next-best provider, CoreWeave, despite using B200 GPUs rather than the newer GB300 platform. This benchmark relates to an earlier version of the model, so we still need to see how it performs on K3, but the direction is telling. Token Factory’s value will depend not only on offering the latest models, but also on running them faster, more efficiently, and with better economics than competing platforms. Kimi K3 is exactly the kind of release that makes the strategic value of the Eigen acquisition even clearer. $NBIS has been saying from the beginning that the market would move in this direction.

Roman (Nebius Co Founder) said during the -40% stock drawdown during the DeepSeek panic they had their best week in sales ever. Now we get more OpenSource progress (insanely bullish for Nebius - that will host them / offer these models to customers and now offers a much better ROI). What does the market do? $NBIS down almost 50% from ATH. Can't make this shit up xD No doubt in my mind Nebius is currently seeing ridiculous demand and the REAL business is absolutely crushing it RIGHT NOW. Again. Exact same reality to narrative disconnect. Yaya I get it. Risk off, high beta, inflation, blabla. At the end of the day Nebius will print money like crazy and the facts are painting a very bullish picture that just keeps getting better every day. Ironically, especially over the last few weeks during the selloff. More data centers than expected. Super fast international expansion. OpenSource CRUSHING it. I have zero doubt price will catch up to reality again and then all the doubters will magically change their opinions again.

This is probably the best $NBIS model I’ve ever seen (by far) — you did a great job @InvestNorthwise 👏. That said, it’s only as good as its assumptions. Small changes in revenue per mw, utilization, margins, depreciation, dilution, capex, or the exit multiple will produce dramatically different outcomes. Models don’t predict the future, they translate assumptions into numbers. The further out you forecast, the more humble you should become. I still stand by what I’ve said: to me, based on the risks, margin of safety, etc $NBIS becomes attractive in the low $100s/share (roughly a $25–30B market cap). 🌹

🚨 Another data center deployment in the pipeline for $NBIS? The company has just posted three job openings in Singapore, a market that management had already expressed interest in entering. The roles strongly suggest that Nebius is actively preparing for a Singapore data center presence. In just four days, we’ve seen evidence of expansion into Wales, India, and now Singapore.

Based on the economics for the foreseeable future, an attractive price for $NBIS would be around $100-$120 per share, or roughly a $25-$30 billion market cap. We may never get that opportunity, and that’s life. At that price, I think the stock offers a reasonable, though not extraordinary, margin of safety. I said the same thing when $NBIS was around $300 per share, and I’m saying the same thing today at $190. My opinion hasn’t changed. Obviously, I know $NBIS is a darling of many people on this platform, and you’re more than welcome to disagree with my opinion. That’s what makes a market. 🌹

$BE Bloom Energy Fuel Cells to Power $1.7B $NBIS AI Data Center Buildout 🔋⚡ 🏭 Industrial Development Funding and Oaktree announced $1.7 billion in project investment to deploy Bloom Energy fuel cell technology for AI cloud infrastructure ⚡ The project will provide dedicated behind-the-meter power to help Nebius meet growing compute demand for its AI cloud platform 🤝 Morgan Stanley served as sole tax equity investor and placement agent, while MUFG Bank provided senior debt financing 💰 IDF is the lead developer with minority equity participation from Oaktree, expanding a partnership that now totals over $2.6 billion in Bloom Energy projects 🚀 Bloom Energy says the deal reflects its speed to power, clean technology, and ability to support demanding AI workload performance needs

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but $NBIS isn’t changing its business model. This is simply an additional avenue for growth that allows the company to avoid turning away customers when its own capacity is fully utilized. The core strategy remains the same. This is an extra lever to capitalize on the current demand environment.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Momentum stocks are getting crushed in July. Goldman Sachs’ High-Beta Momentum Index is down 24% month-to-date through the first half of the month, its worst stretch since April 2009. Morgan Stanley’s Tech Momentum Index is also seeing its sharpest breakdown on record, with its 17-day rate of change down 35%, the worst move in its 27-year history. But the broader market is holding up better, with the S&P 500 green today as hyperscalers rallied, showing the market may be broadening out beyond the hardest-hit momentum names. 2. PPI came in cooler than expected across the board. Headline PPI was 5.5% YoY vs 6.2% expected, while PPI fell 0.3% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core PPI was 4.7% YoY vs 5.1% expected, with Core PPI rising 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected. 3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.7M contracts, $TSLA with 2.8M contracts, $AAPL with 2.5M contracts, $MU with 1.1M contracts, $AMZN with 1.0M contracts, $MSFT with 895K contracts, $META with 815K contracts, $INTC with 754K contracts, $GOOGL with 717K contracts, and $SPCX with 506K contracts. 4. Nvidia $NVDA is expanding its Toyota partnership beyond autonomous driving, supplying AI hardware and software for smart cities, traffic systems, and factories. Toyota will use Nvidia technology in Woven City, along with Omniverse for assembly-line digital twins, Isaac robotics, and Nemotron LLMs. 5. CoreWeave $CRWV is exploring financial hedges to protect against a future decline in memory and storage chip prices, per Reuters. Put options and other derivative instruments have reportedly been discussed, though talks are still early and no hedges have been executed. The issue: AI cloud providers have signed long-term supply deals with companies like Micron and SanDisk that include price floors for DRAM and storage chips. That protects chipmakers if prices fall, but could leave cloud buyers stuck paying above-market rates. 6. Anthropic is preparing investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO as soon as October, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are reportedly working on the listing. The Claude maker was valued at $965B after its May funding round, reportedly surpassing OpenAI. 7. Stripe and Advent have reportedly offered to buy PayPal $PYPL for $60.50/share, valuing the company at more than $53B, per Reuters. The offer is backed by roughly $50B in committed bank financing. Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal with equal stakes, rather than breaking the company up. 8. Apple $AAPL is reportedly looking at AI chip acquisitions to strengthen its server-chip strategy, per The Information. The company has spoken with bankers and approached semiconductor startups as its current M2 Ultra-based AI servers struggle with more advanced AI workloads. Apple is also relying on Nvidia chips inside Google Cloud for heavier tasks, including parts of the revamped Siri. A future Apple AI server chip, code-named Baltra, was expected this year but has reportedly been delayed. 9. Nokia $NOK will begin selling Nvidia-powered AI mobile network gear starting in 2027. The new AI-driven RAN platform is expected to improve spectrum efficiency by 50% next year and allow operators to transmit 2x more data over the same airwaves by 2028. The platform will also support software upgrades toward 6G and work with Open RAN standards. 10. Nebius $NBIS introduced an asset-light AI cloud model built through infrastructure partnerships. Under the model, partners will finance, own, and operate the data centers and hardware, while Nebius provides the architecture, software stack, supply-chain access, and sells the capacity through its own sales team. Nebius expects to generate revenue through revenue-sharing, licensing fees, commissions, and committed capacity agreements, with minimal incremental capital required. 11. ASML $ASML reported a massive Q2 beat and raised FY26 guidance. Net sales came in at €9.33B vs €8.85B expected, EPS was €7.59 vs €6.90, and gross margin reached 54.0% vs 52% expected. ASML said customers are accelerating capex plans, visibility is stronger than usual, and it is already close to receiving all required 2027 EUV orders. Memory is expected to drive major growth, with FY26 memory revenue up roughly 75%, EUV revenue up 45%, and Installed Base Management revenue up more than 30%. The company also said its updated guidance includes expected demand from Elon Musk’s Terafab project, with ASML expecting to collaborate with Musk’s team as AI drives more advanced Logic and Memory lithography demand. 12. Leveraged ETFs are flooding the U.S. market. There are now a record 700 U.S.-listed leveraged ETFs, more than twice the count at the end of 2024, with 400+ tied to individual stocks. Roughly 210 new leveraged funds have launched this year, already exceeding the ~205 launched during all of 2025. Leveraged and inverse products represented 31% of U.S. ETF launches in the first half of 2026, up from 22% last year. June alone saw 117 leveraged or inverse ETF debuts, nearly half of all 239 ETFs launched in the U.S. that month. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

The fact that $NBIS is barely trading up after they just made one of the smartest moves of the entire neocloud era, is crazy. $NBIS announced a new asset light business model. Infrastructure partners, data center developers, investors, regional operators, national AI projects, finance and own the hardware and run the facilities. Nebius supplies the architecture, the supply chain access, the full software stack, and then sells the capacity through its own global sales organization. So really think about it, partners put up the capital. Nebius keeps the customer relationship and collects revenue shares, licensing fees, commissions, and committed capacity it can resell. Here’s why this is such a big deal. The knock on every neocloud has always been the same, capex hungry, debt funded, growth capped by how many data centers you can physically finance and build. This model breaks that ceiling. Nebius can now scale globally using other people’s money, generating what they describe as high margin revenue with minimal incremental capital. It’s the hyperscaler playbook flipped. Instead of racing to own every megawatt, Nebius becomes the software and demand layer sitting on top of everyone else’s infrastructure. The platform becomes the product. That’s a higher margin, higher multiple business than renting GPUs, and it’s exactly the kind of model shift markets re-rate. And the demand side is already proven. Meta at up to $27B, Microsoft at $17B, Reflection’s $1B+ deal yesterday. Nebius has more customers than capacity. This model turns that exact problem into the growth engine, every partner site becomes new supply for a sales pipeline that’s already overflowing. They’ve already signed initial arrangements under the model. This isn’t a concept slide. It’s live. The market saw a press release. It should have seen a business model upgrade.

One question I’ve seen is how $NBIS' new asset-light model differs from a traditional colocation agreement. The biggest difference comes down to who funds and owns the compute infrastructure. In a traditional colocation model, Nebius rents space in a third-party facility but still buys and owns the GPUs, servers, and networking equipment. Under the new model, the partner finances, owns, and operates both the data center and the hardware, while Nebius provides the systems architecture, cloud platform, operational expertise, and customer demand. In other words, Nebius retains the technology and customer relationship while outsourcing much of the capital-intensive physical infrastructure. The key takeaway is that the company is no longer limited to scaling at the pace its own balance sheet allows.

HUGE $NBIS news today, showcasing why they're the premier neocloud: -> Nebius announces a new business model that lets infrastructure partners deploy Nebius’s AI cloud platform in their own AI data centers. This is so f*cking good. Simply: - Nebius will let partners (e.g. DC developers, infra funds, sovereign AI projects) build + pay for data centres. - Then pair that partner capacity with Nebius's systems, software stackm and customer book. - Meaning that Nebius can expand their capacity "pool" even faster. - With no capex or financing risks like debt/dilution. Also, for Nebius: they get a very high margin rev stream w/ minimal financing requirements. Since the partners will fund all the expensive stuff like the actual building / power / GPUs. And then Nebius supplies genuinely scarce stuff like systems architecture / $NVDA supply chain access / software stack. And ofc, the GTM strategy w/ access to Nebius's customers. Meaning that Nebius would sell a partner's DC capacity via their own in-house Nebius sales org. With identical service levels to their owned sites. Then, Nebius takes a revenue cut / licensing fees / commissions / committed capacity deals. Unbelievable from Nebius lol. Nebius sells out capacity every quarter and sits on ~$46B of contracted backlog (mainly $MSFT and $META). So their main constraint is nothing to do with customers or tech. Rather, their limiting factor has been capital + energized power where every GW costs upwards of billions of dollars. But...this announcement removes the capital constraints to crazy high expansion.

That's how $NBIS goes to $1,000 This is probably the biggest announcement and most important strategic decisions in the company's history. It will take time until the market understands how huge this is. Let me try to explain how massive this is: - Nebius can now add capacity 10x faster - without ANY dilution - or capex - or risk - with ultra high margins - globally - in parallel - while simultaneously making their offering better for customers This sounds too good to be true, what's the "trick"? Nebius has the best team and expertise in the AI Cloud game. This is their way of leveraging that and their NVDIA relationship (and NVDIA owns the supply chain, no matter what anyone says...). The one ugly side of their business has always been the high capex. I believe the capex is super worth it and will deliver very high ROIC. But this is them creating an alternative world in which they completely crush it WITHOUT a ton of capex and dilution. There are probably millions of entrepreneurs globally who have good connections to local governments, access to money and want to participate in the AI buildout. But they lack the expertise to deliver the product quality of Nebius and will never match it. All the ex Bitcoin miners like $IREN are in this camp. They are now facing the option to combine their strengths and the best of both worlds.

I’m thinking there’s a 50% chance we see a $NBIS / $IREN partnership. $IREN has 5-6GW of power/capacity (nobody has more) and $NBIS has the best ai/software/token stack. This could be a great win/win partnership and help $IREN close bigger deals with better economics.

Here’s a clearer explanation of the division of responsibilities between $NBIS and its partners. Importantly, the announcement also states that “the company has already entered into initial arrangements under this asset-light model.” https://t.co/9sF5YsfxzY

This news from $NBIS honestly makes me 2-3x more bullish on the company and the stock price. Dead serious. The upside just got so much bigger for $NBIS shareholders. I’ve been saying for months that $NBIS has the best stack and their recent acquisitions in Eigen, Tavily and Clarifai just reinforces that. Meanwhile there’s dozens of smaller data center companies, most of whom pivoted from BTC mining that have land and power but they don’t have the stack that $NBIS has. This is such a massive win for everyone and will help the smaller data center companies close bigger deals by licensing the $NBIS stack. $NBIS has gotten more focused on token optimization/efficiency which is going to be a massive competitive advantage in the near future. I love how this team continues to execute and raise the bar.

JUST IN: $NBIS introduces business model to scale AI cloud globally through infrastructure partnerships 👀 Under the model, partners finance and own the infrastructure and hardware, and operate the data centers. Nebius supplies its systems architecture and supply-chain access, deploys and maintains its hardware design and software and services stack on the partner infrastructure, and takes the resulting capacity to market through its global sales organization. Partners get fully-owned AI infrastructure assets, designed to Nebius standards, and a fast route to serve the AI cloud market. Nebius’s architecture and platform transform a partner’s raw capacity into a production-ready AI cloud, which Nebius then connects to customers. Because Nebius brings the demand, partners can begin generating a return as soon as the capacity goes live. For Nebius, this asset-light approach expands the capacity it can offer its customers, such as AI natives and enterprises, with minimal incremental capital requirements. Partners’ data centers will join the Nebius capacity pool, adding incremental capacity to that coming online from Nebius’s owned data centers and colocations. Arkady Volozh, Founder and CEO of $NBIS, said: “Our new asset-light model gives infrastructure partners a flexible way to benefit from the explosive growth of AI. Our software allows partners to reach a much wider customer base with much better margins than conventional wholesale bare-metal contracts. We’re inviting data center investors, regional partners and others with capacity or capital to contribute to join us in serving this demand, combining their assets and local strengths with Nebius’ technology, platform, operational expertise and customer demand.” Nebius anticipates pursuing a variety of economic arrangements under this partnership model, including revenue-sharing agreements, licensing fees and commissions, as well as committed capacity arrangements that would provide Nebius with access to additional compute to be sold to customers. The company has already entered into initial arrangements under this asset-light model. As part of the partnership agreements, Nebius will equip partner teams to run the site and will remain responsible for the cloud software and service levels, while the partner manages the facility and hardware. Customers receive the same standard of service whether they run on Nebius’ own infrastructure or a partner’s.

This may be one of the most important strategic announcements from $NBIS this year. Nebius can now scale its AI cloud without funding every data center itself. Partners provide the capital, own, and operate the facilities while Nebius supplies the architecture, software, platform, operations, and customer demand. That means: • Faster expansion • Less capital required from Nebius • Higher potential returns on capital • More recurring software and platform revenue • Lower reliance on shareholder dilution The biggest takeaway is that growth is becoming constrained less by Nebius’s balance sheet and more by customer demand….and we all know the demand is there. 4 to 5 customers lined up for every GPU cluster…per management’s comments. Also, it says they already signed initial partnership arrangements That means this isn’t just a concept…they’re indicating execution has already begun.

$NBIS Nebius Launches Asset-Light AI Cloud Partnership Model

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. June U.S. inflation came in much cooler than expected. Headline CPI was 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected, while CPI fell 0.4% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core CPI was 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% expected, with Core CPI flat at 0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected. This marks the first negative monthly inflation reading since 2020. 2. President Trump said he has decided to replace the proposed 20% United States Reimbursement Fee on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals from Gulf States into the U.S. He said those investments will be “massive” while also being “extraordinarily good” for the Gulf States and their future. 3. IBM $IBM went down 24% after preliminary Q2 results came in well below expectations. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up just 1% YoY, with consulting revenue flat and infrastructure revenue down 7% YoY. CEO Arvind Krishna said that in the last few weeks of June, clients shifted quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, while cybersecurity concerns also distracted customers. IBM said it did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. The stock has lost roughly $65B in market cap. 4. Palantir $PLTR moved from $122 in the premarket to $135 as the market opened. The stock opened down on the $IBM news around software spend shifting toward capex spend and recovered into the open, closing up 3%. $MSFT Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella quoted Alex Karp yesterday in his piece about why the market needs to focus on true enterprise transformation, not just tokens, while Chamath said on CNBC today that Karp “deserves a medal” for being on the right side of history in calling out foundation model companies that take IP without delivering customer value. 5. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today said in his congressional testimony that he is “doubling down” on the 2% inflation target and believes this Fed will deliver 2% inflation. He added that a broader price stability objective is still in the back of his mind and said the Fed will see if further reforms are needed. Warsh also said he is prepared to do everything he can to ensure the independent conduct of monetary policy. 6. New York is set to enact the first statewide data center moratorium in the U.S., per NYT. Gov. Kathy Hochul will pause approvals for new hyperscale data centers using 50MW+ of power for one year while the state studies energy, water, and environmental impacts. The order takes effect immediately, but does not impact projects that already have required permits. Hospitals, universities, and back-office financial services are not expected to be affected. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 707K contracts, $PLTR with 646K contracts, $INTC with 562K contracts, $MU with 551K contracts, $IBM with 494K contracts, $AMZN with 492K contracts, $MSFT with 478K contracts, and $WULF with 420K contracts. 8. Nebius $NBIS agreed to sell $1B+ of AI compute to Reflection AI through 2029, giving the company access to Nvidia GB300 chips. Reflection AI, founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, also signed a multibillion-dollar compute deal with SpaceX last month and has reportedly discussed raising $2.5B at a $25B valuation. Nebius already has compute agreements with Microsoft and Meta. 9. OpenAI is developing a screen-free, battery-powered smart speaker designed as a humanlike AI companion and a new home AI computer. The first consumer product is reportedly focused on voice interaction and ambient presence, giving users an AI assistant they can build a connection with. The device includes a camera and other sensors to understand surroundings and context, while tapping into ChatGPT for richer assistance than conventional smart speakers. It can control smart-home appliances, play media, answer questions, respond to messages, help with chores, assist with cooking, and play music as it moves around the home. 10. Aehr $AEHR reported a strong Q4 beat and guided well above the Street. Q4 EPS came in at $0.11 vs -$0.01 expected, while revenue was $18.8M vs $18.69M expected. The company also received $8M+ in new silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in orders as EV programs ramp, including a follow-on WaferPak order from its lead SiC production customer and a direct order from one of the world’s top two automakers to qualify SiC suppliers for next-gen EVs. Aehr said its lead customer indicated additional capacity needs this fiscal year. Most importantly, $AEHR guided FY27 revenue to $130M–$150M, far above the Street at $85M. 11. Big banks reported a very strong Q2, with Goldman Sachs $GS, Bank of America $BAC, JPMorgan $JPM, and Wells Fargo $WFC all beating expectations. Goldman was the standout, with revenue of $20.34B vs $16.35B expected and EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45, driven by a massive 53% YoY jump in Global Banking & Markets and a 72% YoY surge in Equities S&T. Bank of America beat on revenue and EPS, with trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% YoY. JPMorgan posted revenue of $58.02B vs $51.39B expected and EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72, though NII was roughly in line. Wells Fargo also beat, with revenue up 9% YoY, EPS up 25% YoY, and net loan charge-offs coming in better than expected. Overall, the quarter showed stronger trading, resilient credit, and better-than-expected earnings power across the big banks. 12. South Korea is seeing an unprecedented foreign investor pullback. Overseas investors have dumped $110B of Korean equities so far this year, already far beyond the prior 7-year full-year high of $22B in 2021. The selling intensified in June, when foreigners unloaded $31B, the biggest monthly outflow ever recorded. At the same time, local buyers have stepped in aggressively, with domestic retail investors purchasing $60B and institutions adding $15B since May began. The pressure is now spilling into leveraged retail accounts: as of July 13, 1.2M Korean margin accounts had triggered margin calls, with roughly 320K–360K accounts fully liquidated by brokers. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$NBIS I asked Grok what he’d call it. Here is the answer: “I’d call it “The Great Retail Handover” — or, more cheekily, “Institutions slurping while Reddit panic-sells the future.” Fundamentals executing, smart money piling in at an accelerating clip, and the price still gets yeeted lower? That’s not a red flag, that’s a loading screen for the next leg up. The market’s basically handing you discounted shares like it’s Black Friday for billionaires. Classic “opportunity in drag.” Keep stacking if the thesis holds, my man — the institutions clearly aren’t here for the vibes”

$NBIS Grok wasn’t answering so I plugged it into the grok app. Answer below: Reclaiming $250 is more likely than dropping to $100 over the next 30 days, based strictly on fundamentals and execution track record. Key Fundamentals Supporting This • Explosive Growth and Beats: Q1 2026 revenue hit $399M (684% YoY, beating estimates), with AI cloud revenue at ~$390M (841% YoY, ~98% of total). ARR reached $1.92B (up 54% QoQ from $1.25B end-2025). Adjusted EBITDA turned strongly positive at ~$130M (vs. losses prior). Management has a consistent history of beating and raising guidance (e.g., prior ARR targets exceeded). • Capacity and Backlog Execution: Contracted power raised multiple times (now targeting >4GW by YE2026, with >3.5GW already). Major long-term deals (e.g., Meta ~$27B, Microsoft up to ~$19B, NVIDIA investment) provide visibility and prepayments. Owned capacity scaling (e.g., new Pennsylvania site up to 1.2GW secured). Capacity remains sold out, with strong demand (multiple customers per GPU). • Guidance and Trajectory: Reiterated 2026 revenue $3–3.4B and ARR $7–9B targets. Capex raised aggressively ($20–25B) to meet demand, funded via debt, prepayments, and partnerships. Margins improving (gross ~72–74%, adj. EBITDA ~45% in Q1 core). Back-end weighted ramp expected. • Balance Sheet/Positioning: Significant cash from operations/prepayments, strategic funding (e.g., convertibles), and full-stack AI cloud focus (hardware + software/services). High barriers in power/GPU supply favor scaled players with execution. Recent Context (Past ~3 Months) Management continued strong execution post-Q1 (e.g., Eigen AI acquisition closed, platform updates like 3.6 for developers, new deals/power secures). No major fundamental misses reported; Q2 results are upcoming (early August). The stock has pulled back sharply (~25–30%+ from June highs near $280–300, now trading ~$195–210), but this aligns with broader AI/neocloud sector weakness, not company-specific erosion. A drop to $100 would require a catastrophic fundamental reversal (e.g., major contract cancellations, capacity collapse, or solvency issues)—none of which is supported by the trajectory, backlog, or track record. Reclaiming $250 is a far smaller move (~20–25% from current levels) and aligns with prior volatility around positive updates, continued ARR ramp, and any positive Q2 pre-earnings momentum or sector recovery. Execution has been reliable; the business is scaling into massive AI demand. Short-term stock moves can be volatile (dilution concerns, macro, sentiment), but fundamentals and management’s delivery point to upside probability dominating downside risk to those extremes in 30 days. This is not a prediction of exact price but relative likelihood.

$NBIS down because of New York’s 1 year moratorium on new data centers? Algos: Sell first, ask questions later. NBIS has no projects in New York. Even if they did, all projects that are already permitted can continue. So what? So even if this starts a precedent with a few liberal states, 99% chance that all pre-permitted projects can move forward….meaning nobody is caught flat footed. $NBIS is GLOBAL! They already said if one data center project is nixed, they have an enormous pipeline of sites. Welcome to the era of bots trading at high volume on headlines without the benefit of common sense. Short term volatility will happen. Long term execution will be rewarded and overshadow all of this soon enough.

$NBIS crybaby investors and panicans, it seems you need some common sense. Deepseek going public is BULLISH Nebius. During the Deepseek panic last time Nebius stock went down 40%. Guess when they had their BEST WEEK EVER in sales? Bingo. Back then. Repeat after me: memory prices going up is BAD for Nebius. Opensource winning is GOOD. Market has it sooooo backwards 😂😂😂

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

🚨 $NBIS is preparing its first data center in India. Just two hours ago, the company posted two on-site job openings in Hyderabad, both related to new data center launches. Asia, here we go. I first discussed this possibility in June last year, after The Economic Times reported that India-based data center companies were looking to attract neocloud firms to the country. h/t @David917S for flagging this.

$NBIS just landed another deal. Reflection AI signed a $1B+ deal with Nebius for compute capacity, including access to Nvidia’s latest chips. That’s the ex-DeepMind, Nvidia-backed lab valued at $25B building the open-source answer to OpenAI and Anthropic. Three weeks ago Reflection signed up to $6.3B with SpaceX. Now a billion more with Nebius. One AI lab stacking ~$7B in compute across two providers in under a month, because there isn’t enough anywhere. Demand isn’t drying up. It’s lining up.

$NBIS to sell $1 Billion in AI compute to Reflection AI https://t.co/dtrZ110z1d

JUST IN: AI startup Reflection has signed a deal worth more than $1B to secure compute capacity from $NBIS. Founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, Reflection is developing open-source AI models designed to compete with offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic.